10 questions going into the Pacquiao-Cotto fight 1. Can Pacquiao take a punch from a prime 147-pounder?
Yes, Pacquiao fought Oscar De La Hoya at welterweight. However, many observers believe that De La Hoya was both depleted and in decline; he had next to nothing on the few punches he landed. Cotto is a relatively young (29), strong, full-fledged welterweight with a high knockout percentage (77 percent). He very likely will land some hard punches unless he’s taken out early. And how Pacquiao reacts could play a central role in the fight. Remember, Pacquiao fought at 130 pounds as recently as last year. The thought of Pacquiao going down seems to be unthinkable in light of his recent success but it is possible.
2. Have Pacquaio’s recent victories been blown out of proportion?
Pacquiao has established himself as a superstar based largely on his last three fights, knockouts of David Diaz, Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton. However, we can find serious flaws in all three opponents: Diaz is solid but limited, De La Hoya was in decline and depleted and Hatton was probably a combination of Diaz and De La Hoya. In other words, it can be argued that Pacquiao beat three very vulnerable fighters. This is probably one reason many observers are picking Cotto to win. The only question mark hovering over him is the beating he took from Margarito. Other than that, he’s in his prime and coming off a solid victory over a tough opponent in Joshua Clottey. Bottom line: This fight will tell us much more about Pacquiao than the past three.
3. Is Cotto fully recovered from the beating he took from Antonio Margarito last year?
Some fighters never come back from a beat down like that, both physically and mentally. Cotto's situation is different from that of someone like Amir Khan, who was caught by a big punch and stopped quickly. The Puerto Rican was systematically broken down until he could no longer fight, undoubtedly leaving his body and confidence damaged. He seems to have bounced back reasonably well. He handled an overmatched opponent in Michael Jennings in his comeback fight and then outlasted Joshua Clottey in spite of a bad cut above his eye, a gutsy performance. Pacquiao is a step up from Clottey, though. It will be interesting to see how Cotto reacts when Pacquiao’s punches rain down him from all directions.
4. How will the 145-pound catch weight affect Cotto?
Cotto has pointed out that he weighed in at 146 pounds and had no trouble getting there before his split-decision victory over Clottey in June, in which he fought 12 hard rounds. He doesn’t expect one more pound to make or break him this time. He might be right; no one knows his body like he does. Then again, fighters often say that every pound they must lose – sometimes even fractions of pounds – take a toll on their energy level. And Cotto hasn’t weighed in for a fight below 146 since he was 138½ for Paulie Malignaggi in June of 2006, more than three years ago. We probably won’t know how the catch weight will affect Cotto until the late rounds – if the fight gets there.
5. Is Cotto’s new trainer, Joe Santiago, equipped to guide him in a fight of this magnitude?
Cotto said he selected young Joe Santiago to replace his longtime coach, his uncle Evangelista, before the Clottey fight because he believes in his ability, Santiago had been with the team for some time and they communicate well. However, the fact remains Santiago went directly from Cotto’s nutritionist to his trainer. And he’s going to go head to head with one of the top trainers in the world in Freddie Roach. Rarely do you see in a fight this big with such a disparity in the corners. This isn’t to suggest that Santiago won’t do a good job on fight night. His credentials can legitimately be questioned, though.
6. Will a variety of distractions have affected Pacquiao in any way?
Pacquiao and trainer Freddie Roach say that the distractions he experienced during his one-month training camp in the Phillipines – in-fighting on his team, typhoons and moving camp from Baguio to Manila, for example – didn’t have an impact on his preparation. He ran in the rain or swam in a pool, whatever it took to get in prime fighting shape. However, Roach admitted that conditions during the five days spent in Manila were not ideal, which prompted him to move the camp back to Los Angeles a day early. One wonders whether all this set him back at all and, if so, whether three weeks is enough time for him to be 100 percent ready.
7. Will Cotto be able to cope with Pacquaio’s speed?
Cotto proved against Shane Mosley and Zab Judah that he can handle a very quick opponent. Roach has said as much. Cotto is very clever and probably a lot quicker than we give him credit for, meaning he might also be able to deal with Pacquiao’s speed. That said, Pacquiao might be quicker than both Mosley and Judah when both hand and foot speed are considered. Pacquiao’s hand speed probably rivals that of Mayweather; De La Hoya couldn’t see his punches coming let alone react to them. And his foot speed might be even more impressive, particularly when it’s combined with improving skills. He has become adept at moving in and out of harm’s way before his opponent even has a chance to react. This could prove to be the difference in the fight.
8. Will the cut Cotto suffered against Clottey resurface?
Cotto was cut badly above his left eye by an accidental head butt against Clottey and he fought that way for eight-plus rounds. Santiago said on a conference call a few weeks ago that the cut had healed well and played no role in training camp. He credited two plastic surgeons on hand the night of the fight. However, we know that fighters who have been cut badly are more likely to be cut badly again, particularly as they get older. It’s not difficult to imagine Pacquiao peppering the eye with his right jab until it opens again. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen. And if it does, at least Cotto has proved that he’ll fight under those circumstances.
9. What if Pacquiao loses?
The landscape of boxing would change to a good degree if Cotto beats Pacquiao. Now, Pacquiao is the hottest thing going in the world. He’s a charismatic, exciting fighter who has destroyed his recent opponents and seems to be getting better with age. And he hasn’t lost since Erik Morales outpointed him in 2005. If he loses, he comes back to earth to join the rest of the mortals. The superfight everyone is talking about – Pacquiao-Mayweather – would go out the window and promoter Bob Arum would have to go back to the drawing board to determine how best to move forward. Of course, how he loses would affect the impact. If he’s blown out, that hurts. If he loses a close, entertaining fight, the damage wouldn’t be so bad. Perhaps a rematch would be bigger than the first fight.
10. What if Cotto wins?
Cotto would be a far bigger star than he ever was if he upsets Pacquiao, particularly among his Puerto Rican brethren. He might never be as big as Wilfredo Gomez and Felix Trinidad on the island but a victory over the top pound-for-pound fighter would undoubtedly make him an idol. And he would be in a tremendous position in terms of earning power and leverage. He could either fight Pacquiao again for the most money he’s ever made or take on Mayweather himself for a similar payday. Another option would be a rematch with Shane Mosley. Whichever direction he went, he’d make huge money in front of a huge audience. That’s what fighters dream of when they take up the sport.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Thursdays Plays MLB and College Football
courtesy of depositsports.com
LuckyDaySports
Thursday's Comp Play
MLB
Take the Under (8.5) in the MLB NY Yankees at LA Angels gam
____________________________________________________________________
NELLY'S GREEN SHEET
NORTH CAROLINA (-2½) Florida State 7:00 PM
UNC has some of the best defensive numbers in the nation, allowing only 237 yards per
game. The Tar Heels have lost their last two FBS games however, currently sitting 0-2 in the
ACC despite being considered a contender. Florida State is actually 0-3 in conference play
and the Seminoles are just 2-4 overall with only one FBS win. That win was a shocking
blowout at BYU but this will be a tough road game as both teams are well rested. North
Carolina has only won S/U against Florida State once in school history, so though this line
may be close to even, UNC is still the underdog in the minds of the players. Florida State has
played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and the offense has been far more
productive for the year. Florida State has been vulnerable to big plays on defense but North
Carolina has not been able to sustain drives let alone create a big plays. Against three major
conference opponents, North Carolina has scored a total of 22 points.
FLORIDA STATE BY 6
LuckyDaySports
Thursday's Comp Play
MLB
Take the Under (8.5) in the MLB NY Yankees at LA Angels gam
____________________________________________________________________
NELLY'S GREEN SHEET
NORTH CAROLINA (-2½) Florida State 7:00 PM
UNC has some of the best defensive numbers in the nation, allowing only 237 yards per
game. The Tar Heels have lost their last two FBS games however, currently sitting 0-2 in the
ACC despite being considered a contender. Florida State is actually 0-3 in conference play
and the Seminoles are just 2-4 overall with only one FBS win. That win was a shocking
blowout at BYU but this will be a tough road game as both teams are well rested. North
Carolina has only won S/U against Florida State once in school history, so though this line
may be close to even, UNC is still the underdog in the minds of the players. Florida State has
played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and the offense has been far more
productive for the year. Florida State has been vulnerable to big plays on defense but North
Carolina has not been able to sustain drives let alone create a big plays. Against three major
conference opponents, North Carolina has scored a total of 22 points.
FLORIDA STATE BY 6
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Pacquiao to get $20 million in upcoming fight vs.Cotto
Hall of Fame promoter Bob Arum has assured his top fighters Manny “PacMan” Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto of a record paycheck for their November 14 title fight in Nevada. Arum, whose Las Vegas-based company Top Rank is promoting the Pacquiao-Cotto, said that between them, the two welterweight superstars will easily earn $30 million in what could be the richest fight this year.
“I take great pride in this fight,” Arum told Rick Folstad of TheSweetScience.com. “We have two guys who are going to make their biggest payday on November 14. Pacquiao will make over $20 million and Cotto will make over $10 million. And I helped create that.”
Arum, 78, said he just visited his two favorite boxers and found them both in great shape with less than one month to go to the World Boxing Organization welterweight fight dubbed “Fire Power” at the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas.
Arum added that he expects a “very competitive fight with lots of action” that the fans would love.
“Manny is an offensive machine,” he said. “He blends in his defense in the best possible way. In essence, he turns himself into a magician in the ring. He can disappear while in plain sight.”
Arum said Pacquiao, who won his first world title at flyweight, was an explosive puncher, but he added that Cotto has more power because he was a natural welterweight.
“Miguel is the bigger guy, and Manny might be vulnerable to Miguel’s left hand to the body and the head. It’s how Manny reacts to those left hands that will be the story of the fight.”
By Jun Medina, Special Correspondent
The Manila Times
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Yankees Sharp
THE SPORTS ADVISORS courtesy of depositsports.com
N.Y. Yankees (5-1) at L.A. Angels (4-2)
After a thrilling 11-inning victory Monday, the Angels look to even this best-of-7 American League Championship series when they give the ball to newcomer Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.99) in Game 4 at Angel Stadium, while the Yankees counter with ace CC Sabathia (21-8, 3.24 ERA).
Los Angeles rallied from 3-0, sixth-inning deficit in Game 3 and prevailed 5-4 in 11 innings thanks to Jeff Mathis’ two-out double that scored Howie Kendrick from first base, handing New York its first defeat of this postseason. These teams have played 24 innings the last two games, following New York’s 4-3 victory in 13 innings Saturday.
New York – which is back in the ALCS after getting bounced in the first round in 2005, 2006 and 2007 – is still on impressive runs of 46-18 overall, 4-1 on Tuesday, 11-4 in the fourth game of a series and 8-3 against left-handed starters. However, the last time the Yankees were in the ALCS, they blew a 3-0 series lead to the Red Sox in 2004, and they’re now 1-7 in their last eight road playoff contests.
Going back to the end of the regular season, the Halos have won 11 of 14 overall, seven of eight at home, 37 of 52 against southpaw starters and 14 of 19 at home against lefties. However, L.A. has dropped 12 of its last 17 playoff games, including six of nine at home, and it snapped a six-game ALCS losing skid with Monday’s win. Although, the Angels bounced longtime playoff nemesis Boston in three games in the first round, this is just their sixth-ever appearance in the ALCS, having lost four of the first five.
The Yankees had won four straight in this rivalry prior to blowing Monday’s game, and they’re now 7-6 in 13 meetings this year. However, New York has lost five of six this year in Anaheim and is just 8-21 in their last 29 games at Angel Stadium. In fact, the host is 17-4 in the last 21 clashes between these clubs going back to the beginning of last August (10-3 this season).
These teams have met just twice previously in postseason play, both in the best-of-5 divisional round, and the Angels won both times in 2002 and 2005.
Sabathia struggled in his first two postseason appearances in 2007-08, going 2-3 with a 7.92 ERA in five starts with Cleveland and Milwaukee. However, he’s been brilliant in two playoff outings in pinstripes, going 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in beating the Twins 7-2 and the Angels 4-1, both in Game 1 at home. He gave up one earned run in each game over a total 14 2/3 innings, walking just one while striking out 15.
Eliminate an awful regular-season finale against Tampa Bay (nine runs, five earned, in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-4 loss), and Sabathia has delivered 12 consecutive quality starts. Even with the bad outing at Tampa Bay, New York is 13-1 in Sabathia’s last 14 trips the hill, all multiple-run victories. Additionally, with the hefty lefty starting, the Yankees are on runs of 6-1 on the road, 5-0 against the A.L. West, 9-1 against winning clubs and 4-1 on Tuesday.
Sabathia was 12-6 with a 3.53 ERA in 19 regular-season road starts. Also, with the dominating eight-inning effort in Game 1 on Friday, he’s now 6-7 with a 4.42 ERA in 15 career outings versus the Angels, including 1-2 with a 4.22 ERA in three games this year and 2-3 with a 4.63 ERA in seven starts at Angel Stadium.
Kazmir got roughed up a bit in Game 3 of the ALDS in Boston on Oct. 11, allowing five runs on five hits in six innings, but the Angels rallied for a series-clinching 7-6 victory to improve to 5-1 in Kazmir’s last six starts (2-1 at home). Prior to the outing against the Red Sox, Kazmir had gone 2-2 with 1.73 ERA in six regular-season starts after being traded from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles, with opponents batting just .212 against the left-hander in those six games.
Kazmir is 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three home starts with Los Angeles, but the one loss came against the Yankees on Sept. 23. In that game, Kazmir suffered a 3-2 setback, allowing all three runs on six hits in six innings. Despite that result, the Houston native, who faced New York often with the Rays, is 6-5 with a sparkling 2.67 ERA in 15 career appearances (14 starts) against the Yanks. Finally, including five starts with the Rays during their World Series run last year, Kazmir is now 1-1 with a 4.83 ERA in postseason play.
New York is on “under” runs of 15-6-1 overall, 8-3 in playoff road games, 5-1-1 in playoff games overall, 5-2 in ALCS action, 6-2-1 against lefty starters and 16-5-1 after a victory. However, the over is 11-1 in Sabathia’s last 12 outings on the highway and 7-1-1 in his last nine versus the A.L. West.
Similarly, the Angels are on “under” runs of 34-17-1 overall, 4-2 at home, 16-6 against southpaws (7-1 last eight at home against lefties), 9-4 in ALCS games, 5-2 against A.L. East teams, 7-1-1 on Tuesday and 6-1 with Kazmir on the bump
In this rivalry, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall (2-1 in this ALCS), but the over is 15-5 in the last 20 head-to-head clashes in Southern California, with Game 3 barely hurdling the 8½-run posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
N.Y. Yankees (5-1) at L.A. Angels (4-2)
After a thrilling 11-inning victory Monday, the Angels look to even this best-of-7 American League Championship series when they give the ball to newcomer Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.99) in Game 4 at Angel Stadium, while the Yankees counter with ace CC Sabathia (21-8, 3.24 ERA).
Los Angeles rallied from 3-0, sixth-inning deficit in Game 3 and prevailed 5-4 in 11 innings thanks to Jeff Mathis’ two-out double that scored Howie Kendrick from first base, handing New York its first defeat of this postseason. These teams have played 24 innings the last two games, following New York’s 4-3 victory in 13 innings Saturday.
New York – which is back in the ALCS after getting bounced in the first round in 2005, 2006 and 2007 – is still on impressive runs of 46-18 overall, 4-1 on Tuesday, 11-4 in the fourth game of a series and 8-3 against left-handed starters. However, the last time the Yankees were in the ALCS, they blew a 3-0 series lead to the Red Sox in 2004, and they’re now 1-7 in their last eight road playoff contests.
Going back to the end of the regular season, the Halos have won 11 of 14 overall, seven of eight at home, 37 of 52 against southpaw starters and 14 of 19 at home against lefties. However, L.A. has dropped 12 of its last 17 playoff games, including six of nine at home, and it snapped a six-game ALCS losing skid with Monday’s win. Although, the Angels bounced longtime playoff nemesis Boston in three games in the first round, this is just their sixth-ever appearance in the ALCS, having lost four of the first five.
The Yankees had won four straight in this rivalry prior to blowing Monday’s game, and they’re now 7-6 in 13 meetings this year. However, New York has lost five of six this year in Anaheim and is just 8-21 in their last 29 games at Angel Stadium. In fact, the host is 17-4 in the last 21 clashes between these clubs going back to the beginning of last August (10-3 this season).
These teams have met just twice previously in postseason play, both in the best-of-5 divisional round, and the Angels won both times in 2002 and 2005.
Sabathia struggled in his first two postseason appearances in 2007-08, going 2-3 with a 7.92 ERA in five starts with Cleveland and Milwaukee. However, he’s been brilliant in two playoff outings in pinstripes, going 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in beating the Twins 7-2 and the Angels 4-1, both in Game 1 at home. He gave up one earned run in each game over a total 14 2/3 innings, walking just one while striking out 15.
Eliminate an awful regular-season finale against Tampa Bay (nine runs, five earned, in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-4 loss), and Sabathia has delivered 12 consecutive quality starts. Even with the bad outing at Tampa Bay, New York is 13-1 in Sabathia’s last 14 trips the hill, all multiple-run victories. Additionally, with the hefty lefty starting, the Yankees are on runs of 6-1 on the road, 5-0 against the A.L. West, 9-1 against winning clubs and 4-1 on Tuesday.
Sabathia was 12-6 with a 3.53 ERA in 19 regular-season road starts. Also, with the dominating eight-inning effort in Game 1 on Friday, he’s now 6-7 with a 4.42 ERA in 15 career outings versus the Angels, including 1-2 with a 4.22 ERA in three games this year and 2-3 with a 4.63 ERA in seven starts at Angel Stadium.
Kazmir got roughed up a bit in Game 3 of the ALDS in Boston on Oct. 11, allowing five runs on five hits in six innings, but the Angels rallied for a series-clinching 7-6 victory to improve to 5-1 in Kazmir’s last six starts (2-1 at home). Prior to the outing against the Red Sox, Kazmir had gone 2-2 with 1.73 ERA in six regular-season starts after being traded from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles, with opponents batting just .212 against the left-hander in those six games.
Kazmir is 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three home starts with Los Angeles, but the one loss came against the Yankees on Sept. 23. In that game, Kazmir suffered a 3-2 setback, allowing all three runs on six hits in six innings. Despite that result, the Houston native, who faced New York often with the Rays, is 6-5 with a sparkling 2.67 ERA in 15 career appearances (14 starts) against the Yanks. Finally, including five starts with the Rays during their World Series run last year, Kazmir is now 1-1 with a 4.83 ERA in postseason play.
New York is on “under” runs of 15-6-1 overall, 8-3 in playoff road games, 5-1-1 in playoff games overall, 5-2 in ALCS action, 6-2-1 against lefty starters and 16-5-1 after a victory. However, the over is 11-1 in Sabathia’s last 12 outings on the highway and 7-1-1 in his last nine versus the A.L. West.
Similarly, the Angels are on “under” runs of 34-17-1 overall, 4-2 at home, 16-6 against southpaws (7-1 last eight at home against lefties), 9-4 in ALCS games, 5-2 against A.L. East teams, 7-1-1 on Tuesday and 6-1 with Kazmir on the bump
In this rivalry, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall (2-1 in this ALCS), but the over is 15-5 in the last 20 head-to-head clashes in Southern California, with Game 3 barely hurdling the 8½-run posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Monday Night Special 9.19.09
DB Sports Consultants courtesy of depositsports.com
5* Denver ML +160
Denver has finally proved they are one of the elite teams in the NFL after beating New England in OT last week. This team is for real thanks to a rookie head coach in Josh McDaniels and the steady play of Kyle Orton. We look for Denver to go 6-0 and 3.5 games up in the AFC West going into their bye week. San Diego has yet to prove they have a defense giving up more points than they have scored YTD. The bye week does the Chargers no good as the Broncos can smell blood in the AFC West. 17-6 Broncos.
5* Denver ML +160
Denver has finally proved they are one of the elite teams in the NFL after beating New England in OT last week. This team is for real thanks to a rookie head coach in Josh McDaniels and the steady play of Kyle Orton. We look for Denver to go 6-0 and 3.5 games up in the AFC West going into their bye week. San Diego has yet to prove they have a defense giving up more points than they have scored YTD. The bye week does the Chargers no good as the Broncos can smell blood in the AFC West. 17-6 Broncos.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
A write-up I like.....
Kelso Sturgeon Newsletter courtesy of depositsports.com
Saturday, Oct. 17
OKLAHOMA STATE by 10 over Missouri--It is difficult to understand all the Oklahoma State (4-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) that have come out of the woodwork to bash the Cowboys, taking an I-told-you-so attitude toward a team that at the beginning of the season appeared to have the talent to win a national championship. Oklahoma State showed its strength last week in winning 36-31 at Texas A&M without Dez Bryant (suspended), the best wide-receiver in the country, and without running back Kendall Hunter (injured). Senior running back Keith Toston stepped in and rushed for 130 yards on 26 carries--an example of just how much depth this team has. I had the opportunity to cash a ticket against Missouri this past Thursday night, taking Nebraska and laying the 3 1/2 and winning 27-12. Frankly Missouri (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) looked like the most under-rated team in the country. I believe OSU will prove that point in this one.
LOUISIANA TECH by 21 over New Mexico State--I will most certainly give New Mexico State (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) credit for its accomplishments this season but I am not on the bandwagon, despite its 20-17 win over a much better Utah State team last week. In that game, Utah State was 'homered' from the get go, out-yarding New Mexico State 429 to 230 but falling victim to 12 penalties--many of them at key times and very questionable--for 128 yards. It was hard to overcome and New Mexico State slipped in the backdoor. With that said, New Mexico State simply doesn't have the offense to keep it close in this game in Rustin, where Louisiana Tech (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) went 5-1 last season and is 2-0 this time around. Meantime, New Mexico State is 1-1 on the road this season, while going 5-31 the previous five years. Tech is much better that it looked in that 37-14 loss to an explosive Nevada team last week and this drop in class points to a big win.
Minnesota by 3 over PENN STATE--There is no average going against Penn State in Happy Valley but there is no 5-1 team in the country that is anymore suspect than are the Nittany Lions. In fact, Coach Joe Paterno (yes, I am a big fan) should be ashamed of himself for playing a cupcake non-conference schedule made up of Akron, Syracuse, Temple and Eastern Illinois. It is quite interesting that when Penn State played a legitimate football team, it lost at Iowa, 21-10. The Nittany Lions (2-4 ATS) come into this game off a 42-3 win over 1-AA Eastern Illinois and are facing a Minnesota (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) team with a slew of superior skill players that key an offense that can put the points on the board. Minnesota showed its true colors in two games this season--a 20-13 win over a very tough Air Force team and in a tough 31-28 loss to a very good Wisconsin team. The ambush of the day.
TEMPLE by 9 over Army--Kudos to Army's first-year coach Rich Ellerson--formerly of Cal-Poly--who has Army off to a 3-3 (2-4 ATS) start and fresh off a major upset win over Vanderbilt, 16-13, in overtime. However, that win over Vanderbilt was an early Christmas gift to the Cadets, as the Commodores had three touchdowns called back on penalties and failed to get a fourth when the running back dropped the ball inches short of the goal line as he was going in for the winning TD. Now it is back to reality and a Temple (3-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) that is playing outstanding football right now and showing the guts and grit it takes to win the close ones. These teams have played to common opponents--Ball State (0-6) and Eastern Michigan (0-5)--and have beaten them both. Temple beat Ball State last week, 24-19, and won at Eastern Michigan, 37-13 earlier. Army won at Eastern Michigan, 27-14, and at home against Ball State, 24-17. In the end it boils down to skill players and physical strength and Temple grades out on top in both.
Houston by 55 over TULANE--The only question I have in my mind is how did Houston (4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) ever lose to Texas-El Paso--by a 58-41 score, no less? The Cougars are one of the best football teams in the country and last week won at Mississippi State, 31-24. They previously had knocked off nationally-ranked Oklahoma State, 45-35, in Stillwater, and edged Texas Tech, 29-28, in Houston. Not only is Houston an outstanding team, it has a potentially great passing quarterback in junior Case Keenum who last week completed 39-of-52 passes for 434 yards and two touchdowns in that win in Starkville. This appears to be the perfect storm mismatch. Tulane (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) does not have a defense that can slow down Houston and it certainly is not going to out-gun Keenum and company. For the record Tulane gives up 408.5 yards per game.
Navy by 21 over SMU--Coach June Jones certainly is turning around the SMU program but the team is not quite as good as its 3-2 (3-1 ATS) record and is certainly up against it against one of the best Navy (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) teams of the decade. One need look no further than last week's stunning SMU upset of East Carolina, 28-21. A win--most certainly--but not quite as good as it looked. Three of the SMU touchdowns told the story. One came on a blocked field goal returned 63 yards for a touchdown. Another came on a 53-yard interception returned for a touchdown. One came on a 96-yard pass play. None of these things are likely to happen against a Navy team that crushed Rice, 63-14, last week and did that while trying to hold down the score. The Midshipmen have lost only at Ohio State (5-1), 31-27, and at Pittsburgh (5-1), 27-14. This is a good Navy team and should dominate in this spot.
CONNECTICUT by 17 over Louisville--Connecticut (3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS) remains one of the most under-rated football teams in the country and comes into this game ready to fire its best shot--and that should be good enough to get the money against a struggle Louisville (2-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) team. The host Huskies took their two losses by a total of 5 points, losing at home to North Carolina, 12-10, on a fluke safety and this past week at nationally-ranked Pittsburgh, 24-21, In other words, Connecticut could easily be undefeated. This is a team that plays great defense, giving up just 232.3 yards per game, and should be able to drop the hammer on Louisville. The Cardinals come into this game off a 25-23 home win over a crippled Southern Miss team, on the strength of a 32-yard field goal with 30 seconds left to play.
Best Of The Rest
BOSTON COLLEGE by 4 over N.C. State
Ohio State by 35 over PURDUE
BALL STATE by 3 over Bowling Green
MICHIGAN STATE by 24 over Northwestern
WISCONSIN by 7 over Iowa
Virginia by 13 over MARYLAND
Wake Forest by 3 over CLEMSON
IOWA STATE by 7 over Baylor
OLE MISS by 29 over UAB
Georgia by 14 over VANDERBILT
AUBURN by 7 over Kentucky
Central Michigan by 17 over WESTERN MICHIGAN
AIR FORCE by 21 over Wyoming
OHIO by 14 over Miami-OH
Nevada by 13 over UTAH STATE
WEST VIRGINIA by 14 over Marshall
UCLA by 6 over California
NEBRASKA by 7 over Texas Tech
KANSAS STATE by 3 over Texas A&M
EAST CAROLINA by 35 over Rice
BUFFALO by 7 over Akron
TCU by 17 over Colorado State
IDAHO by 10 over Hawaii
BYU by 28 over SAN DIEGO STATE
ARIZONA by 6 over Stanford
Illinois by 4 over INDIANA
COLORADO by 3 over Kansas
Washington by 4 over ARIZONA STATE
FRESNO STATE by 40 over San Jose State
UL-Lafayette by 24 over WESTERN KENTUCKY
Troy by 27 over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Florida Atlantic by 7 over NORTH TEXAS
Mississippi State by 14 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Saturday, Oct. 17
OKLAHOMA STATE by 10 over Missouri--It is difficult to understand all the Oklahoma State (4-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) that have come out of the woodwork to bash the Cowboys, taking an I-told-you-so attitude toward a team that at the beginning of the season appeared to have the talent to win a national championship. Oklahoma State showed its strength last week in winning 36-31 at Texas A&M without Dez Bryant (suspended), the best wide-receiver in the country, and without running back Kendall Hunter (injured). Senior running back Keith Toston stepped in and rushed for 130 yards on 26 carries--an example of just how much depth this team has. I had the opportunity to cash a ticket against Missouri this past Thursday night, taking Nebraska and laying the 3 1/2 and winning 27-12. Frankly Missouri (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) looked like the most under-rated team in the country. I believe OSU will prove that point in this one.
LOUISIANA TECH by 21 over New Mexico State--I will most certainly give New Mexico State (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) credit for its accomplishments this season but I am not on the bandwagon, despite its 20-17 win over a much better Utah State team last week. In that game, Utah State was 'homered' from the get go, out-yarding New Mexico State 429 to 230 but falling victim to 12 penalties--many of them at key times and very questionable--for 128 yards. It was hard to overcome and New Mexico State slipped in the backdoor. With that said, New Mexico State simply doesn't have the offense to keep it close in this game in Rustin, where Louisiana Tech (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) went 5-1 last season and is 2-0 this time around. Meantime, New Mexico State is 1-1 on the road this season, while going 5-31 the previous five years. Tech is much better that it looked in that 37-14 loss to an explosive Nevada team last week and this drop in class points to a big win.
Minnesota by 3 over PENN STATE--There is no average going against Penn State in Happy Valley but there is no 5-1 team in the country that is anymore suspect than are the Nittany Lions. In fact, Coach Joe Paterno (yes, I am a big fan) should be ashamed of himself for playing a cupcake non-conference schedule made up of Akron, Syracuse, Temple and Eastern Illinois. It is quite interesting that when Penn State played a legitimate football team, it lost at Iowa, 21-10. The Nittany Lions (2-4 ATS) come into this game off a 42-3 win over 1-AA Eastern Illinois and are facing a Minnesota (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) team with a slew of superior skill players that key an offense that can put the points on the board. Minnesota showed its true colors in two games this season--a 20-13 win over a very tough Air Force team and in a tough 31-28 loss to a very good Wisconsin team. The ambush of the day.
TEMPLE by 9 over Army--Kudos to Army's first-year coach Rich Ellerson--formerly of Cal-Poly--who has Army off to a 3-3 (2-4 ATS) start and fresh off a major upset win over Vanderbilt, 16-13, in overtime. However, that win over Vanderbilt was an early Christmas gift to the Cadets, as the Commodores had three touchdowns called back on penalties and failed to get a fourth when the running back dropped the ball inches short of the goal line as he was going in for the winning TD. Now it is back to reality and a Temple (3-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) that is playing outstanding football right now and showing the guts and grit it takes to win the close ones. These teams have played to common opponents--Ball State (0-6) and Eastern Michigan (0-5)--and have beaten them both. Temple beat Ball State last week, 24-19, and won at Eastern Michigan, 37-13 earlier. Army won at Eastern Michigan, 27-14, and at home against Ball State, 24-17. In the end it boils down to skill players and physical strength and Temple grades out on top in both.
Houston by 55 over TULANE--The only question I have in my mind is how did Houston (4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) ever lose to Texas-El Paso--by a 58-41 score, no less? The Cougars are one of the best football teams in the country and last week won at Mississippi State, 31-24. They previously had knocked off nationally-ranked Oklahoma State, 45-35, in Stillwater, and edged Texas Tech, 29-28, in Houston. Not only is Houston an outstanding team, it has a potentially great passing quarterback in junior Case Keenum who last week completed 39-of-52 passes for 434 yards and two touchdowns in that win in Starkville. This appears to be the perfect storm mismatch. Tulane (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) does not have a defense that can slow down Houston and it certainly is not going to out-gun Keenum and company. For the record Tulane gives up 408.5 yards per game.
Navy by 21 over SMU--Coach June Jones certainly is turning around the SMU program but the team is not quite as good as its 3-2 (3-1 ATS) record and is certainly up against it against one of the best Navy (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) teams of the decade. One need look no further than last week's stunning SMU upset of East Carolina, 28-21. A win--most certainly--but not quite as good as it looked. Three of the SMU touchdowns told the story. One came on a blocked field goal returned 63 yards for a touchdown. Another came on a 53-yard interception returned for a touchdown. One came on a 96-yard pass play. None of these things are likely to happen against a Navy team that crushed Rice, 63-14, last week and did that while trying to hold down the score. The Midshipmen have lost only at Ohio State (5-1), 31-27, and at Pittsburgh (5-1), 27-14. This is a good Navy team and should dominate in this spot.
CONNECTICUT by 17 over Louisville--Connecticut (3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS) remains one of the most under-rated football teams in the country and comes into this game ready to fire its best shot--and that should be good enough to get the money against a struggle Louisville (2-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) team. The host Huskies took their two losses by a total of 5 points, losing at home to North Carolina, 12-10, on a fluke safety and this past week at nationally-ranked Pittsburgh, 24-21, In other words, Connecticut could easily be undefeated. This is a team that plays great defense, giving up just 232.3 yards per game, and should be able to drop the hammer on Louisville. The Cardinals come into this game off a 25-23 home win over a crippled Southern Miss team, on the strength of a 32-yard field goal with 30 seconds left to play.
Best Of The Rest
BOSTON COLLEGE by 4 over N.C. State
Ohio State by 35 over PURDUE
BALL STATE by 3 over Bowling Green
MICHIGAN STATE by 24 over Northwestern
WISCONSIN by 7 over Iowa
Virginia by 13 over MARYLAND
Wake Forest by 3 over CLEMSON
IOWA STATE by 7 over Baylor
OLE MISS by 29 over UAB
Georgia by 14 over VANDERBILT
AUBURN by 7 over Kentucky
Central Michigan by 17 over WESTERN MICHIGAN
AIR FORCE by 21 over Wyoming
OHIO by 14 over Miami-OH
Nevada by 13 over UTAH STATE
WEST VIRGINIA by 14 over Marshall
UCLA by 6 over California
NEBRASKA by 7 over Texas Tech
KANSAS STATE by 3 over Texas A&M
EAST CAROLINA by 35 over Rice
BUFFALO by 7 over Akron
TCU by 17 over Colorado State
IDAHO by 10 over Hawaii
BYU by 28 over SAN DIEGO STATE
ARIZONA by 6 over Stanford
Illinois by 4 over INDIANA
COLORADO by 3 over Kansas
Washington by 4 over ARIZONA STATE
FRESNO STATE by 40 over San Jose State
UL-Lafayette by 24 over WESTERN KENTUCKY
Troy by 27 over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Florida Atlantic by 7 over NORTH TEXAS
Mississippi State by 14 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Thursday, October 15, 2009
MLB - LA Dodgers v P. Phillies
15 October 2009
Preview By Tipster Jumbo (New Zealand)
Kershaw has been called into action for this Opening match of the NLCS, Kershaw gave up some hits in his last start but not to many and he has been the Dodgers best starter all season long over the first 5 Innings of his games, In Game 2 of the last Series Kershaw had a great start going 6.1 innings whilst giving up 2 earned on 9 hits, he also walked a batter and a Home Run, In his career starting against the Phillies Hamels side is 1-3 and he was was 0-2 against the Phillies in the regular season and has led the Dodgers to losses in his last 3 starts against them, Also 3 of Kershaws Career starts against the Dodgers have been against Hamels, In their first meeting in LA in 2008 the Dodgers won the game 4-3.
Hamel’s is up in Game 1 and his bad season continued I Game 2 of the NLDS as he threw 5 Innings of work and allowed 4 Earned on 7 hits with no walks, He left the game with an era of 7.20, Career wise and Hamel’s has led his side in 6 starts against the Dodgers to 4 wins and 2 losses, He went great in his lone start at LA this season going 9 Innings and giving up no runs in a 3-0 Phillies Win, Hamels has led his side to wins in 4 of his last 5 starts against the Dodgers and has led them to Wins in his last 2 starts in LA.
These two matched up in a big game not to long ago in which both starters were dominant holding either side to little with the Phillies finally getting up 3-0, Kershaw has been solid of late and can throw, I rate him and Billingsley as the strongest starters that the Dodgers have which doesn’t bode well for the Dodgers in a Series up against Hamels, Lee and even Happ, so this switch of starter is an Important switch because to be honest about it, I reckon that Torre knows that his side are up against it here in all faceits of this Series and there fore has gone with his most consistant opening 5 Innings guy on his pitching Roster who is Kershaw, Torre is looking for a win here and it’s only Game 1 of this Series a defining move from the Dodger Manager to get his side off on the front foot and take out this Game.
I’m going to actually trust Hamels today to keep the Dodgers quiet and then hopefully the Phillies can get a lead, this game has really changed now and in many ways for me at least especially with Padilla and Wolf set to start in Games 2 and 4 then I view this as a real move from the Dodgers to win this game, Kershaw will hold them in it, the Question is can the Dodgers take it, that’s the Question and I don’t know if they can, the Phillies come in here confident and ready for action, at some stage the Phillies will get into this Dodgers bullpen no matter how long Kershaw is in for and from then even if the Phillies are only marginally behind they are still alive in the contest at least.
I know that I said that I don’t trust Hamels but I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt here as for me a lot has changed in this game now and it has gone from being the Opening Game of a Series into perhaps the match for it, the Dodgers need Kershaw to perform and I reckon he will, the problem will be if Hamels does as well, For some reason something is telling me to go with the Phillies in this opening game even with Hamels on the hill for them and so I will….Stake it low and enjoy Game 1….Good Luck.
Pick : Phillies WIN Odds : 2.30 Stake : 8 / 10 Bookmaker : PinnacleTuesday, October 13, 2009
Arkansas State (1-3, 1-2 ATS) @ Louisiana-Monroe
THE SPORTS ADVISORS courtesy of depositsports.com
Arkansas State (1-3, 1-2 ATS) at Louisiana-Monroe (3-2, 3-1 ATS)
The Sun Belt Conference gets some rare national exposure as Arkansas State heads south for a league battle with the Warhawks at Malone Stadium.
The Red Wolves bring a three-game SU losing streak to Monroe, La., though they put a big scare into then-No. 13 and undefeated Iowa 10 days ago, losing 24-21 and covering easily as a 21-point road underdog. Arkansas State trailed 14-0 for nearly the entire first half and got outgained 420-296, but it picked off Iowa QB Richard Stanzi twice, returning one for a second-half touchdown. During their three-game losing skid, the Red Wolves have been outgained by margins of 212, 202 and 124, and they haven’t defeated a Division I-A school this season.
UL-Monroe is coming off consecutive Sun Belt victories over Florida Atlanta (27-25 as a 3½-point road underdog) and Florida International (48-35 as a 6½-point home chalk). In the rout of FIU on Oct. 3, the Warhawks piled up 577 total yards (304 rushing) and surrendered 391 (77 rushing).
The home team has won the last four meetings in this rivalry, but Louisiana-Monroe got the cash all four times, all as an underdog. Last year, the Warhawks went to Arkansas State and fell 37-29, but barely covered as a 14½-point underdog. In fact, the pup has covered in nine straight meetings between these schools since 1998, with six outright upsets. Also, the visitor is 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes.
Although they easily got the money at Iowa, Arkansas State is still in ATS funks of 2-9 overall, 1-7 on the road, 1-6 in Sun Belt play, 2-8 after a bye, 1-4 in October and 10-26-1 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, UL-Monroe has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 after a bye, but otherwise, the Warhawks are on impressive ATS runs of 8-3 overall in lined action, 3-0 at home, 21-8-1 in conference action, 10-4-1 in October, 9-3-1 after a SU win and 5-0 when facing opponents with a losing record.
Arkansas State is on “under” runs of 12-3-1 overall in lined action, 12-3-1 on the highway, 9-2-1 when playing on grass and 3-1-1 in October. On the flip side, Louisiana-Monroe carries “over” trends of 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 5-1 in October and 18-7-1 in games following a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISIANA-MONROE
Arkansas State (1-3, 1-2 ATS) at Louisiana-Monroe (3-2, 3-1 ATS)
The Sun Belt Conference gets some rare national exposure as Arkansas State heads south for a league battle with the Warhawks at Malone Stadium.
The Red Wolves bring a three-game SU losing streak to Monroe, La., though they put a big scare into then-No. 13 and undefeated Iowa 10 days ago, losing 24-21 and covering easily as a 21-point road underdog. Arkansas State trailed 14-0 for nearly the entire first half and got outgained 420-296, but it picked off Iowa QB Richard Stanzi twice, returning one for a second-half touchdown. During their three-game losing skid, the Red Wolves have been outgained by margins of 212, 202 and 124, and they haven’t defeated a Division I-A school this season.
UL-Monroe is coming off consecutive Sun Belt victories over Florida Atlanta (27-25 as a 3½-point road underdog) and Florida International (48-35 as a 6½-point home chalk). In the rout of FIU on Oct. 3, the Warhawks piled up 577 total yards (304 rushing) and surrendered 391 (77 rushing).
The home team has won the last four meetings in this rivalry, but Louisiana-Monroe got the cash all four times, all as an underdog. Last year, the Warhawks went to Arkansas State and fell 37-29, but barely covered as a 14½-point underdog. In fact, the pup has covered in nine straight meetings between these schools since 1998, with six outright upsets. Also, the visitor is 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes.
Although they easily got the money at Iowa, Arkansas State is still in ATS funks of 2-9 overall, 1-7 on the road, 1-6 in Sun Belt play, 2-8 after a bye, 1-4 in October and 10-26-1 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, UL-Monroe has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 after a bye, but otherwise, the Warhawks are on impressive ATS runs of 8-3 overall in lined action, 3-0 at home, 21-8-1 in conference action, 10-4-1 in October, 9-3-1 after a SU win and 5-0 when facing opponents with a losing record.
Arkansas State is on “under” runs of 12-3-1 overall in lined action, 12-3-1 on the highway, 9-2-1 when playing on grass and 3-1-1 in October. On the flip side, Louisiana-Monroe carries “over” trends of 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 5-1 in October and 18-7-1 in games following a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISIANA-MONROE
Monday, October 12, 2009
Steven Budin - CEO MONDAY'S PICK NEW YORK CREW
25 DIME RELEASE
Jets (-3)
Note: This line is mainly -2 1/2 with an occasional -3 as I release it on Sunday evening.
If your price is -3, go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point to -2 1/2 to insure you get a win should the Jets only win by three.
If this lines moves to -3 1/2 as kickoff approaches on Monday, obviously you should buy down the 1/2 point to -3 to make sure you get a push if the game results in a three-point New York win.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry: we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in these cases.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.
Jets (-3)
Note: This line is mainly -2 1/2 with an occasional -3 as I release it on Sunday evening.
If your price is -3, go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point to -2 1/2 to insure you get a win should the Jets only win by three.
If this lines moves to -3 1/2 as kickoff approaches on Monday, obviously you should buy down the 1/2 point to -3 to make sure you get a push if the game results in a three-point New York win.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry: we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in these cases.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS -3.5
courtesy of depositsports.com
10* DIME - SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS - The world loves Idaho because they have covered every game this year. Whoopee.
Let me ask you this, if Idaho has played at USC, home against Utah, and on the road at Stanford, do you think they would have covered every game?
You see, San Jose State opened up their schedule with 3 BCS schools and because of it they will be a much better team in this spot here.
They are off a bye week and they are ready to just hammer this Idaho team, and we are getting great value because of the perfect ATS run by the Vandals.
I said this is Dick's best team at San Jose State, and I fully expect them to really come out focused and ready to drill this team.
Utah was in a war with San Jose State and only 24-14. That tells you right there how good San Jose State can be.
Idaho hasn't played anybody of any strength and the one team they did, Washington, crushed them 42-23.
New Mexico State, San Diego State, Northern Illinois and San Diego State don't really qualify as teams like USC, Stanford, and Utah.
Like I said, great value here with San Jose State and I will gladly jump on it all day long.
SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS - 8:00 PM
10* DIME - SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS - The world loves Idaho because they have covered every game this year. Whoopee.
Let me ask you this, if Idaho has played at USC, home against Utah, and on the road at Stanford, do you think they would have covered every game?
You see, San Jose State opened up their schedule with 3 BCS schools and because of it they will be a much better team in this spot here.
They are off a bye week and they are ready to just hammer this Idaho team, and we are getting great value because of the perfect ATS run by the Vandals.
I said this is Dick's best team at San Jose State, and I fully expect them to really come out focused and ready to drill this team.
Utah was in a war with San Jose State and only 24-14. That tells you right there how good San Jose State can be.
Idaho hasn't played anybody of any strength and the one team they did, Washington, crushed them 42-23.
New Mexico State, San Diego State, Northern Illinois and San Diego State don't really qualify as teams like USC, Stanford, and Utah.
Like I said, great value here with San Jose State and I will gladly jump on it all day long.
SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS - 8:00 PM
Friday, October 9, 2009
Florida vs LSU odds - No. 1 Gators going down at Death Valley
The Florida vs LSU odds presents college football fans with one of the biggest games of the year. In normal circumstances, the Gators would roll right through the Tigers, who have squeaked by on a weekly basis. But online betting fans know that with Tim Tebow’s concussion, everything is thrown for a loop. Can you trust the Gators to win?
Florida vs LSU odds: Florida -8
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Florida vs LSU odds maker breakdown: What’s On The Line
The No. 1 Florida Gators (4-0, 2-0) have been considered to be one of the best college football teams since the Miami Hurricanes teams in the 90’s, but their Championship hopes will be threatened this weekend. Quarterback Tim Tebow suffered a serious concussion two weeks ago against Kentucky and has yet to recover from it. Without their superstar quarterback, the Gators’ goals this season could be in jeopardy as they head to the Bayou. With a win, everything is still on course. With a loss, the Gators will have to be perfect the rest of the way.
For the LSU Tigers, all they have faced this year is doubt. From week to week, pundits continue to question their merits, but all the Tigers continue to do is win. They can put the questions to bed with a win against the No. 1 team in the nation and the Tigers are more than capable of it. They have continued to improve week by week, and with a big win here, they could jump to the front of the line in the BCS Championship conversation.
Betting Edge: Florida
Florida vs LSU odds maker breakdown: Offense
The big question for sportsbook odds makers is Tebow’s health. The bigger issue with Tebow is not just will he play or not, but how healthy will he be if he plays? Tebow is not your typical pocket passer who throws the ball away when he’s under pressure - he makes positive gains and plays with reckless abandon. If he plays this way and takes a couple of big hits, he may not last long.
Beyond that, the Gators offense has relied on him more so this year than last year. They lack playmakers at wide receiver and their running game hasn’t been as lethal. Without Tebow, the Gators don’t have a shot, but with him - even if he isn’t 100% - the Gators have a chance to win this game.
LSU’s offense has played well in spurts this year but they have yet to play their best game. They have plenty of talent themselves, starting with quarterback Jordan Jefferson. He’s played well this year and he has led this team to victory every week. Beyond that, the Tigers have wideout Brandon LaFell, who might be the best receiver in the country, and they have a good ground game with Charles Scott and Keiland Williams. This is a very complete offense.
Betting Edge: Even
Florida vs LSU odds maker breakdown: Defense
The Gators defense has been solid this year, but it has been quite similar to the LSU defense: stout, but not pressuring the quarterback enough. One way for the Gators to win this game is to get to quarterback Jordan Jefferson and rattle him. Don’t forget, this will be the biggest game of his young career. The Tigers gave up six sacks to Georgia last week. For the Gators, this could be a real test for their defense. They have had an easy time while playing with the lead this year, but now they might have to play well when they are behind and maybe even stop some bleeding.
The Gators are a rushing offense but that might play into the teeth of the LSU defense. The Tigers have struggled to pressure the quarterback, but they haven’t had many problems stopping the run. Last week between the hedges, the Tigers held Georgia to just 45 total rushing yards. Playing at home will help as the Tigers defense always cranks it up a notch in front of its home fans.
Betting Edge: Even
Florida vs LSU odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
The Tebow injury lingers as the story of this game. Knowing Tebow, he will probably play, but how effective will he be? A concussion is a tricky injury and if he hasn’t fully recovered, he may be susceptible to suffering another one. LSU is a very physical defense and they will surely test Tebow out. If he doesn’t play, the task increases exponentially for Florida as they may not even be expected to win without Tebow.
Betting Edge: LSU
Florida vs LSU State betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
With a healthy Tebow, Florida would be in for a challenge, yet one that they would likely overcome. However, NCAA football betting fans know that the Gators star is not healthy. Tebow is a legend at Florida and he can add to the fairy tale by coming back and leading his team to a win at Death Valley - yet that sounds like a magical story considering he hasn’t practiced in a while and he’s still feeling the symptoms.
LSU has not impressed the pundits to this point but you have to give them credit for getting the job done in tough road games at Washington, Mississippi State and Georgia. This team is better than they are getting credit for; they are improving weekly under the coaching of Les Miles, who somehow finds a way to win regularly. Not only will LSU cover the eight points, they’ll also get the outright win and shock the world.
BLAKE’S PICK: LSU +8
30Dimes Daily Big 3
CFL: LA Tech +10.5
MLB: NYY -1.5 - see write up below courtesy of sbrforums.com
MLB: MIN@NYY Under 10 - see write up below courtesy of sbrforums.com
Ferringo:
You can't feel too confident about having Nick Blackburn on the mound heading into today's game. The Yankees smell blood and I think that they are going to attack a team with a lot of heart but not enough cannons. I think that A.J. Burnett is going to be really, really good tonight. The most dangerous Twins hitters are Mauer and Kubel, who are both lefties. But the Yankees aren't going to pitch to Mauer anyway. So as long as Burnett stays away from Kubel he should be able to do work on the rest of the lineup. Chuckles Meriwether is behind the dish today and he has had a very liberal strike zone all season long. And that's a key thing with Burnett. The guy is kind of a head case and he really start to unravel when he's being squeezed. He isn't going to be getting squeezed today so that should allow his breaking stuff to really overwhelm the righties in the Twins lineup. Minnesota is going to score. They will run and they will score today. But it won't be enough. Blackburn's ERA is about a run higher on the road than at home in his career and this guy just doesn't win away from the Metrodome. The lefty-heavy Yanks lineup should have a field day with him. It's going to be a little wet and a little colder at The Stadium today, which should help Blackburn out early. But over the course of eight at-bats the Yankees are going to jump on the Twins. I think 6-2 or 6-3 sounds about right.
MLB: NYY -1.5 - see write up below courtesy of sbrforums.com
MLB: MIN@NYY Under 10 - see write up below courtesy of sbrforums.com
Ferringo:
You can't feel too confident about having Nick Blackburn on the mound heading into today's game. The Yankees smell blood and I think that they are going to attack a team with a lot of heart but not enough cannons. I think that A.J. Burnett is going to be really, really good tonight. The most dangerous Twins hitters are Mauer and Kubel, who are both lefties. But the Yankees aren't going to pitch to Mauer anyway. So as long as Burnett stays away from Kubel he should be able to do work on the rest of the lineup. Chuckles Meriwether is behind the dish today and he has had a very liberal strike zone all season long. And that's a key thing with Burnett. The guy is kind of a head case and he really start to unravel when he's being squeezed. He isn't going to be getting squeezed today so that should allow his breaking stuff to really overwhelm the righties in the Twins lineup. Minnesota is going to score. They will run and they will score today. But it won't be enough. Blackburn's ERA is about a run higher on the road than at home in his career and this guy just doesn't win away from the Metrodome. The lefty-heavy Yanks lineup should have a field day with him. It's going to be a little wet and a little colder at The Stadium today, which should help Blackburn out early. But over the course of eight at-bats the Yankees are going to jump on the Twins. I think 6-2 or 6-3 sounds about right.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
30Dimes Daily Big 3
CFL: MIZZ+4 (-110)
MLB: BOS@LAA OVER 8.5 (-110)
MLB: STL@LAD Under 7 (even) - see write up below courtesy of depositsports.com
St. Louis (0-1) at L.A. Dodgers (1-0)
"The Cardinals send 19-game winner Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63 ERA) to the hill at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles opposite lefty Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79) as St. Louis tries to even this best-of-5 NLDS.
The Dodgers scored a 5-3 upset win over St. Louis in Game 1 on Wednesday in a game that featured a postseason-record 30 runners left on base. Matt Kemp belted a two-run, first-inning homer for Los Angeles and closer Jonathan Broxton got a four-out save to secure the victory.
Even with the Game 1 loss, St. Louis has taken five of the eight series matchups with the Dodgers this season and has gone 11-5 in the last 16. Going back further, the Cardinals are 10-5 in their last 15 trips to Dodger Stadium and 36-17 in the last 53 meetings overall.
The Cardinals struggled in the final week of the season, going 1-6 overall, 1-7 as a favorite and 1-4 as a road favorite, costing them a shot at the National League’s best record and home-field advantage in the first two rounds. However, St. Louis still finished the regular season on runs of 14-6 against left-handed starters, 16-6 against N.L. West teams. Also, despite last night’s setback, the Cardinals are still on playoff runs of 5-2 overall, 17-6 in the division series and 4-1 in NLDS road affairs.
The Dodgers, who won their second straight division championship this year and also have home-field advantage throughout the N.L. playoffs, are on positive streaks of 5-1 at home, 8-3 against right-handed starters and 6-1 as an underdog.
Wainwright was an amazing 12-1 on the road this season with a 3.39 ERA and the Cardinals won 14 of his 15 road starts. He did struggle a bit down the stretch, as St. Louis lost three of his last four outings, including Friday’s 12-6 home loss to the Brewers when he allowed three runs on five hits in six innings. Wainwright allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts and in his last roadie he gave up three runs (two earned) in eight innings of a 6-3 win in Colorado.
Wainwright beat the Dodgers twice this season, allowing a combined two runs in 15 innings, including a 3-2 win in Southern California against Kershaw on Aug. 19. In five career starts against Los Angeles, he is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 37 1/3 innings of work. Additionally, St. Louis is on several positive streaks with Wainwright on the hill, including 37-15 overall, 20-6 when he starts on the road, 15-7 after five days of rest, 5-1 on Thursdays and 4-0 against N.L. West opposition.
Kershaw was just 3-4 at home this season despite a sparkling 1.83 ERA. On Saturday, he turned in a gem in the N.L. West-clinching 5-0 win over the Rockies, scattering three hits over six innings, striking out 10 and walking three, but he failed to get a decision. The 20-year-old lefty didn’t allow more than two runs in a game in any of his last six starts, however the Dodgers were just 2-9 in his last 11 outings overall going back to July 24.
In his Aug. 18 start against the Cardinals, Kershaw allowed two runs on five hits but walked four and threw 97 pitches in 3 2/3 innings in the 3-2 home loss. Three weeks earlier on July 29 in St. Louis, he pitched eight innings of shutout ball but the Dodgers still lost 3-2. In four career starts against the Cards, Kershaw is 1-0 with a 1.82 ERA in 24 2/3 innings. In addition to losing nine of Kershaw’s last 11 starts overall, the Dodgers are on slides behind the youngster of 1-5 at home, 1-4 against the N.L. Central and 1-5 when he gets four days off. s
With Wainwright on the hill, St. Louis is on “under” runs of 6-1 on Thursdays and 5-2-1 on the road. As a team, the Cardinals are on “under” streaks of 20-9 in playoff road games, 20-9-2 against southpaws, 6-3 against the N.L. West and 60-25-1 in Thursday contests.
The Dodgers are on several “under” runs with Kershaw on the bump, including 6-1 overall, 5-1 on Thursdays, 5-2 at home and 16-5-1 against teams with winning records. However, Los Angeles is also on “over” streaks of 8-1-1 against winning teams, 5-1-1 at home and 7-1-1 against right-handed starters.
In this rivalry, the under is 9-5 overall dating to the start of 2008, including 5-2 in Southern California."
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER
MLB: BOS@LAA OVER 8.5 (-110)
MLB: STL@LAD Under 7 (even) - see write up below courtesy of depositsports.com
St. Louis (0-1) at L.A. Dodgers (1-0)
"The Cardinals send 19-game winner Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63 ERA) to the hill at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles opposite lefty Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79) as St. Louis tries to even this best-of-5 NLDS.
The Dodgers scored a 5-3 upset win over St. Louis in Game 1 on Wednesday in a game that featured a postseason-record 30 runners left on base. Matt Kemp belted a two-run, first-inning homer for Los Angeles and closer Jonathan Broxton got a four-out save to secure the victory.
Even with the Game 1 loss, St. Louis has taken five of the eight series matchups with the Dodgers this season and has gone 11-5 in the last 16. Going back further, the Cardinals are 10-5 in their last 15 trips to Dodger Stadium and 36-17 in the last 53 meetings overall.
The Cardinals struggled in the final week of the season, going 1-6 overall, 1-7 as a favorite and 1-4 as a road favorite, costing them a shot at the National League’s best record and home-field advantage in the first two rounds. However, St. Louis still finished the regular season on runs of 14-6 against left-handed starters, 16-6 against N.L. West teams. Also, despite last night’s setback, the Cardinals are still on playoff runs of 5-2 overall, 17-6 in the division series and 4-1 in NLDS road affairs.
The Dodgers, who won their second straight division championship this year and also have home-field advantage throughout the N.L. playoffs, are on positive streaks of 5-1 at home, 8-3 against right-handed starters and 6-1 as an underdog.
Wainwright was an amazing 12-1 on the road this season with a 3.39 ERA and the Cardinals won 14 of his 15 road starts. He did struggle a bit down the stretch, as St. Louis lost three of his last four outings, including Friday’s 12-6 home loss to the Brewers when he allowed three runs on five hits in six innings. Wainwright allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts and in his last roadie he gave up three runs (two earned) in eight innings of a 6-3 win in Colorado.
Wainwright beat the Dodgers twice this season, allowing a combined two runs in 15 innings, including a 3-2 win in Southern California against Kershaw on Aug. 19. In five career starts against Los Angeles, he is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 37 1/3 innings of work. Additionally, St. Louis is on several positive streaks with Wainwright on the hill, including 37-15 overall, 20-6 when he starts on the road, 15-7 after five days of rest, 5-1 on Thursdays and 4-0 against N.L. West opposition.
Kershaw was just 3-4 at home this season despite a sparkling 1.83 ERA. On Saturday, he turned in a gem in the N.L. West-clinching 5-0 win over the Rockies, scattering three hits over six innings, striking out 10 and walking three, but he failed to get a decision. The 20-year-old lefty didn’t allow more than two runs in a game in any of his last six starts, however the Dodgers were just 2-9 in his last 11 outings overall going back to July 24.
In his Aug. 18 start against the Cardinals, Kershaw allowed two runs on five hits but walked four and threw 97 pitches in 3 2/3 innings in the 3-2 home loss. Three weeks earlier on July 29 in St. Louis, he pitched eight innings of shutout ball but the Dodgers still lost 3-2. In four career starts against the Cards, Kershaw is 1-0 with a 1.82 ERA in 24 2/3 innings. In addition to losing nine of Kershaw’s last 11 starts overall, the Dodgers are on slides behind the youngster of 1-5 at home, 1-4 against the N.L. Central and 1-5 when he gets four days off. s
With Wainwright on the hill, St. Louis is on “under” runs of 6-1 on Thursdays and 5-2-1 on the road. As a team, the Cardinals are on “under” streaks of 20-9 in playoff road games, 20-9-2 against southpaws, 6-3 against the N.L. West and 60-25-1 in Thursday contests.
The Dodgers are on several “under” runs with Kershaw on the bump, including 6-1 overall, 5-1 on Thursdays, 5-2 at home and 16-5-1 against teams with winning records. However, Los Angeles is also on “over” streaks of 8-1-1 against winning teams, 5-1-1 at home and 7-1-1 against right-handed starters.
In this rivalry, the under is 9-5 overall dating to the start of 2008, including 5-2 in Southern California."
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER
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