A write-up I like.....

Kelso Sturgeon Newsletter courtesy of depositsports.com

Saturday, Oct. 17

OKLAHOMA STATE by 10 over Missouri--It is difficult to understand all the Oklahoma State (4-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) that have come out of the woodwork to bash the Cowboys, taking an I-told-you-so attitude toward a team that at the beginning of the season appeared to have the talent to win a national championship. Oklahoma State showed its strength last week in winning 36-31 at Texas A&M without Dez Bryant (suspended), the best wide-receiver in the country, and without running back Kendall Hunter (injured). Senior running back Keith Toston stepped in and rushed for 130 yards on 26 carries--an example of just how much depth this team has. I had the opportunity to cash a ticket against Missouri this past Thursday night, taking Nebraska and laying the 3 1/2 and winning 27-12. Frankly Missouri (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) looked like the most under-rated team in the country. I believe OSU will prove that point in this one.

LOUISIANA TECH by 21 over New Mexico State--I will most certainly give New Mexico State (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) credit for its accomplishments this season but I am not on the bandwagon, despite its 20-17 win over a much better Utah State team last week. In that game, Utah State was 'homered' from the get go, out-yarding New Mexico State 429 to 230 but falling victim to 12 penalties--many of them at key times and very questionable--for 128 yards. It was hard to overcome and New Mexico State slipped in the backdoor. With that said, New Mexico State simply doesn't have the offense to keep it close in this game in Rustin, where Louisiana Tech (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) went 5-1 last season and is 2-0 this time around. Meantime, New Mexico State is 1-1 on the road this season, while going 5-31 the previous five years. Tech is much better that it looked in that 37-14 loss to an explosive Nevada team last week and this drop in class points to a big win.

Minnesota by 3 over PENN STATE--There is no average going against Penn State in Happy Valley but there is no 5-1 team in the country that is anymore suspect than are the Nittany Lions. In fact, Coach Joe Paterno (yes, I am a big fan) should be ashamed of himself for playing a cupcake non-conference schedule made up of Akron, Syracuse, Temple and Eastern Illinois. It is quite interesting that when Penn State played a legitimate football team, it lost at Iowa, 21-10. The Nittany Lions (2-4 ATS) come into this game off a 42-3 win over 1-AA Eastern Illinois and are facing a Minnesota (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) team with a slew of superior skill players that key an offense that can put the points on the board. Minnesota showed its true colors in two games this season--a 20-13 win over a very tough Air Force team and in a tough 31-28 loss to a very good Wisconsin team. The ambush of the day.

TEMPLE by 9 over Army--Kudos to Army's first-year coach Rich Ellerson--formerly of Cal-Poly--who has Army off to a 3-3 (2-4 ATS) start and fresh off a major upset win over Vanderbilt, 16-13, in overtime. However, that win over Vanderbilt was an early Christmas gift to the Cadets, as the Commodores had three touchdowns called back on penalties and failed to get a fourth when the running back dropped the ball inches short of the goal line as he was going in for the winning TD. Now it is back to reality and a Temple (3-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) that is playing outstanding football right now and showing the guts and grit it takes to win the close ones. These teams have played to common opponents--Ball State (0-6) and Eastern Michigan (0-5)--and have beaten them both. Temple beat Ball State last week, 24-19, and won at Eastern Michigan, 37-13 earlier. Army won at Eastern Michigan, 27-14, and at home against Ball State, 24-17. In the end it boils down to skill players and physical strength and Temple grades out on top in both.

Houston by 55 over TULANE--The only question I have in my mind is how did Houston (4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) ever lose to Texas-El Paso--by a 58-41 score, no less? The Cougars are one of the best football teams in the country and last week won at Mississippi State, 31-24. They previously had knocked off nationally-ranked Oklahoma State, 45-35, in Stillwater, and edged Texas Tech, 29-28, in Houston. Not only is Houston an outstanding team, it has a potentially great passing quarterback in junior Case Keenum who last week completed 39-of-52 passes for 434 yards and two touchdowns in that win in Starkville. This appears to be the perfect storm mismatch. Tulane (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) does not have a defense that can slow down Houston and it certainly is not going to out-gun Keenum and company. For the record Tulane gives up 408.5 yards per game.

Navy by 21 over SMU--Coach June Jones certainly is turning around the SMU program but the team is not quite as good as its 3-2 (3-1 ATS) record and is certainly up against it against one of the best Navy (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) teams of the decade. One need look no further than last week's stunning SMU upset of East Carolina, 28-21. A win--most certainly--but not quite as good as it looked. Three of the SMU touchdowns told the story. One came on a blocked field goal returned 63 yards for a touchdown. Another came on a 53-yard interception returned for a touchdown. One came on a 96-yard pass play. None of these things are likely to happen against a Navy team that crushed Rice, 63-14, last week and did that while trying to hold down the score. The Midshipmen have lost only at Ohio State (5-1), 31-27, and at Pittsburgh (5-1), 27-14. This is a good Navy team and should dominate in this spot.

CONNECTICUT by 17 over Louisville--Connecticut (3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS) remains one of the most under-rated football teams in the country and comes into this game ready to fire its best shot--and that should be good enough to get the money against a struggle Louisville (2-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) team. The host Huskies took their two losses by a total of 5 points, losing at home to North Carolina, 12-10, on a fluke safety and this past week at nationally-ranked Pittsburgh, 24-21, In other words, Connecticut could easily be undefeated. This is a team that plays great defense, giving up just 232.3 yards per game, and should be able to drop the hammer on Louisville. The Cardinals come into this game off a 25-23 home win over a crippled Southern Miss team, on the strength of a 32-yard field goal with 30 seconds left to play.

Best Of The Rest
BOSTON COLLEGE by 4 over N.C. State
Ohio State by 35 over PURDUE
BALL STATE by 3 over Bowling Green
MICHIGAN STATE by 24 over Northwestern
WISCONSIN by 7 over Iowa
Virginia by 13 over MARYLAND
Wake Forest by 3 over CLEMSON
IOWA STATE by 7 over Baylor
OLE MISS by 29 over UAB
Georgia by 14 over VANDERBILT
AUBURN by 7 over Kentucky
Central Michigan by 17 over WESTERN MICHIGAN
AIR FORCE by 21 over Wyoming
OHIO by 14 over Miami-OH
Nevada by 13 over UTAH STATE
WEST VIRGINIA by 14 over Marshall
UCLA by 6 over California
NEBRASKA by 7 over Texas Tech
KANSAS STATE by 3 over Texas A&M
EAST CAROLINA by 35 over Rice
BUFFALO by 7 over Akron
TCU by 17 over Colorado State
IDAHO by 10 over Hawaii
BYU by 28 over SAN DIEGO STATE
ARIZONA by 6 over Stanford
Illinois by 4 over INDIANA
COLORADO by 3 over Kansas
Washington by 4 over ARIZONA STATE
FRESNO STATE by 40 over San Jose State
UL-Lafayette by 24 over WESTERN KENTUCKY
Troy by 27 over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Florida Atlantic by 7 over NORTH TEXAS
Mississippi State by 14 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE