Yankees Sharp

THE SPORTS ADVISORS courtesy of depositsports.com

N.Y. Yankees (5-1) at L.A. Angels (4-2)

After a thrilling 11-inning victory Monday, the Angels look to even this best-of-7 American League Championship series when they give the ball to newcomer Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.99) in Game 4 at Angel Stadium, while the Yankees counter with ace CC Sabathia (21-8, 3.24 ERA).

Los Angeles rallied from 3-0, sixth-inning deficit in Game 3 and prevailed 5-4 in 11 innings thanks to Jeff Mathis’ two-out double that scored Howie Kendrick from first base, handing New York its first defeat of this postseason. These teams have played 24 innings the last two games, following New York’s 4-3 victory in 13 innings Saturday.

New York – which is back in the ALCS after getting bounced in the first round in 2005, 2006 and 2007 – is still on impressive runs of 46-18 overall, 4-1 on Tuesday, 11-4 in the fourth game of a series and 8-3 against left-handed starters. However, the last time the Yankees were in the ALCS, they blew a 3-0 series lead to the Red Sox in 2004, and they’re now 1-7 in their last eight road playoff contests.

Going back to the end of the regular season, the Halos have won 11 of 14 overall, seven of eight at home, 37 of 52 against southpaw starters and 14 of 19 at home against lefties. However, L.A. has dropped 12 of its last 17 playoff games, including six of nine at home, and it snapped a six-game ALCS losing skid with Monday’s win. Although, the Angels bounced longtime playoff nemesis Boston in three games in the first round, this is just their sixth-ever appearance in the ALCS, having lost four of the first five.

The Yankees had won four straight in this rivalry prior to blowing Monday’s game, and they’re now 7-6 in 13 meetings this year. However, New York has lost five of six this year in Anaheim and is just 8-21 in their last 29 games at Angel Stadium. In fact, the host is 17-4 in the last 21 clashes between these clubs going back to the beginning of last August (10-3 this season).

These teams have met just twice previously in postseason play, both in the best-of-5 divisional round, and the Angels won both times in 2002 and 2005.

Sabathia struggled in his first two postseason appearances in 2007-08, going 2-3 with a 7.92 ERA in five starts with Cleveland and Milwaukee. However, he’s been brilliant in two playoff outings in pinstripes, going 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in beating the Twins 7-2 and the Angels 4-1, both in Game 1 at home. He gave up one earned run in each game over a total 14 2/3 innings, walking just one while striking out 15.

Eliminate an awful regular-season finale against Tampa Bay (nine runs, five earned, in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-4 loss), and Sabathia has delivered 12 consecutive quality starts. Even with the bad outing at Tampa Bay, New York is 13-1 in Sabathia’s last 14 trips the hill, all multiple-run victories. Additionally, with the hefty lefty starting, the Yankees are on runs of 6-1 on the road, 5-0 against the A.L. West, 9-1 against winning clubs and 4-1 on Tuesday.

Sabathia was 12-6 with a 3.53 ERA in 19 regular-season road starts. Also, with the dominating eight-inning effort in Game 1 on Friday, he’s now 6-7 with a 4.42 ERA in 15 career outings versus the Angels, including 1-2 with a 4.22 ERA in three games this year and 2-3 with a 4.63 ERA in seven starts at Angel Stadium.

Kazmir got roughed up a bit in Game 3 of the ALDS in Boston on Oct. 11, allowing five runs on five hits in six innings, but the Angels rallied for a series-clinching 7-6 victory to improve to 5-1 in Kazmir’s last six starts (2-1 at home). Prior to the outing against the Red Sox, Kazmir had gone 2-2 with 1.73 ERA in six regular-season starts after being traded from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles, with opponents batting just .212 against the left-hander in those six games.

Kazmir is 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three home starts with Los Angeles, but the one loss came against the Yankees on Sept. 23. In that game, Kazmir suffered a 3-2 setback, allowing all three runs on six hits in six innings. Despite that result, the Houston native, who faced New York often with the Rays, is 6-5 with a sparkling 2.67 ERA in 15 career appearances (14 starts) against the Yanks. Finally, including five starts with the Rays during their World Series run last year, Kazmir is now 1-1 with a 4.83 ERA in postseason play.

New York is on “under” runs of 15-6-1 overall, 8-3 in playoff road games, 5-1-1 in playoff games overall, 5-2 in ALCS action, 6-2-1 against lefty starters and 16-5-1 after a victory. However, the over is 11-1 in Sabathia’s last 12 outings on the highway and 7-1-1 in his last nine versus the A.L. West.

Similarly, the Angels are on “under” runs of 34-17-1 overall, 4-2 at home, 16-6 against southpaws (7-1 last eight at home against lefties), 9-4 in ALCS games, 5-2 against A.L. East teams, 7-1-1 on Tuesday and 6-1 with Kazmir on the bump

In this rivalry, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall (2-1 in this ALCS), but the over is 15-5 in the last 20 head-to-head clashes in Southern California, with Game 3 barely hurdling the 8½-run posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES