Thursday, October 8, 2009

30Dimes Daily Big 3

CFL: MIZZ+4 (-110)
MLB: BOS@LAA OVER 8.5 (-110)
MLB: STL@LAD Under 7 (even) - see write up below courtesy of depositsports.com

St. Louis (0-1) at L.A. Dodgers (1-0)
"The Cardinals send 19-game winner Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63 ERA) to the hill at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles opposite lefty Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79) as St. Louis tries to even this best-of-5 NLDS.

The Dodgers scored a 5-3 upset win over St. Louis in Game 1 on Wednesday in a game that featured a postseason-record 30 runners left on base. Matt Kemp belted a two-run, first-inning homer for Los Angeles and closer Jonathan Broxton got a four-out save to secure the victory.

Even with the Game 1 loss, St. Louis has taken five of the eight series matchups with the Dodgers this season and has gone 11-5 in the last 16. Going back further, the Cardinals are 10-5 in their last 15 trips to Dodger Stadium and 36-17 in the last 53 meetings overall.

The Cardinals struggled in the final week of the season, going 1-6 overall, 1-7 as a favorite and 1-4 as a road favorite, costing them a shot at the National League’s best record and home-field advantage in the first two rounds. However, St. Louis still finished the regular season on runs of 14-6 against left-handed starters, 16-6 against N.L. West teams. Also, despite last night’s setback, the Cardinals are still on playoff runs of 5-2 overall, 17-6 in the division series and 4-1 in NLDS road affairs.

The Dodgers, who won their second straight division championship this year and also have home-field advantage throughout the N.L. playoffs, are on positive streaks of 5-1 at home, 8-3 against right-handed starters and 6-1 as an underdog.

Wainwright was an amazing 12-1 on the road this season with a 3.39 ERA and the Cardinals won 14 of his 15 road starts. He did struggle a bit down the stretch, as St. Louis lost three of his last four outings, including Friday’s 12-6 home loss to the Brewers when he allowed three runs on five hits in six innings. Wainwright allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts and in his last roadie he gave up three runs (two earned) in eight innings of a 6-3 win in Colorado.

Wainwright beat the Dodgers twice this season, allowing a combined two runs in 15 innings, including a 3-2 win in Southern California against Kershaw on Aug. 19. In five career starts against Los Angeles, he is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 37 1/3 innings of work. Additionally, St. Louis is on several positive streaks with Wainwright on the hill, including 37-15 overall, 20-6 when he starts on the road, 15-7 after five days of rest, 5-1 on Thursdays and 4-0 against N.L. West opposition.

Kershaw was just 3-4 at home this season despite a sparkling 1.83 ERA. On Saturday, he turned in a gem in the N.L. West-clinching 5-0 win over the Rockies, scattering three hits over six innings, striking out 10 and walking three, but he failed to get a decision. The 20-year-old lefty didn’t allow more than two runs in a game in any of his last six starts, however the Dodgers were just 2-9 in his last 11 outings overall going back to July 24.

In his Aug. 18 start against the Cardinals, Kershaw allowed two runs on five hits but walked four and threw 97 pitches in 3 2/3 innings in the 3-2 home loss. Three weeks earlier on July 29 in St. Louis, he pitched eight innings of shutout ball but the Dodgers still lost 3-2. In four career starts against the Cards, Kershaw is 1-0 with a 1.82 ERA in 24 2/3 innings. In addition to losing nine of Kershaw’s last 11 starts overall, the Dodgers are on slides behind the youngster of 1-5 at home, 1-4 against the N.L. Central and 1-5 when he gets four days off. s

With Wainwright on the hill, St. Louis is on “under” runs of 6-1 on Thursdays and 5-2-1 on the road. As a team, the Cardinals are on “under” streaks of 20-9 in playoff road games, 20-9-2 against southpaws, 6-3 against the N.L. West and 60-25-1 in Thursday contests.

The Dodgers are on several “under” runs with Kershaw on the bump, including 6-1 overall, 5-1 on Thursdays, 5-2 at home and 16-5-1 against teams with winning records. However, Los Angeles is also on “over” streaks of 8-1-1 against winning teams, 5-1-1 at home and 7-1-1 against right-handed starters.

In this rivalry, the under is 9-5 overall dating to the start of 2008, including 5-2 in Southern California."


ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER

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